Dragon's Den InvestingThe scorecard.
A track record that hides its down quarters isn't a track record. Every quarter below is as published in the newsletter — including Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Growth of $1,000 — with today, live.
Hover any point for the values. The chart starts at January 2023 — the first year the newsletter published an annual return. The S&P 500 is drawn as straight segments between its verified points only (its 2023 figure is public index data, +24.2%; no quarterly index data is invented). The dotted extension to "Today" is a live estimate from current quotes.
Every quarter, vs the index.
2025 beat the S&P 500 by about ten points. 2026 has gone the other way so far. A dash means the figure was never published — it is not filled in.
| Period | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Portfolio − S&P |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +118.15% | +24.2% | +94.0 pp |
| 2024 | +18.4% | +24.2% | −5.8 pp |
Prior years, annual figures as published in the newsletter's year-end reviews. No S&P 500 comparison was published for 2023 — the +24.2% figure is public index data (price return).
| Period | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Portfolio − S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +2.09% | −4.6% | −10.4% | +6.7 pp |
| Q2 2025 | +17.14% | +10.6% | +17.8% | +6.6 pp |
| Q3 2025 | +10.19% | +7.8% | +11.2% | +2.4 pp |
| Q4 2025 | −3.92% | +2.3% | +2.6% | −6.3 pp |
| Full year 2025 | +26.61% | +16.39% | — | +10.22 pp |
| Q1 2026 | −13.3% | −4.6% | −7.1% | −8.7 pp |
| Q2 2026 | +10.6% | +14.9% | +21.4% | −4.3 pp |
| 2026 year-to-date | −4.2% | +9.6% | +12.8% | −13.8 pp |
| Q3 2026 — to date LIVE | — | — | — | — |
Portfolio figures as published in the quarterly updates. Index figures are official index price returns (S&P 500; Nasdaq = Nasdaq Composite). The Q1 2026 index figures correct the quarterly update, which showed −5.1% / −8.1% — the official quarter returns are −4.6% / −7.1%. The 2026 year-to-date index figures are recomputed from the official quarterly returns. "pp" = percentage points of difference vs the S&P 500.
The "Q3 2026 — to date" row is a live estimate during market hours (Mon–Fri 6:30 AM–1:00 PM MST). It is derived from the published Q2-end portfolio value and current share counts, and assumes no Q3 trades.
Portfolio minus index. That's the score.
Absolute returns flatter the manager; only the difference from the index measures the decisions. As put in the Q3 2025 update:
This is why every update leads with the delta, not the dollar figure. Beating the market by ten points in 2025 counts. Trailing it by thirteen points so far in 2026 counts too — and gets published the same way.
Graded predictions, A through F.
Each year the calls get scored honestly. 2025's report card:
C+
2 A's (quantum-vs-Bitcoin thesis; AI agents underwhelming while coding tools matter), 2 B's (sticky inflation; biotech), 2 C's (Mag 7; Altman/Gemini), 2 D's (energy; M&A), 1 F (semiconductors — "I've gotten semis wrong for 2 years now").
D+
2 A's (Europe as the economic sick man; Chinese stocks strong, SMIC +145%), 1 B (Panama Canal), 1 C (Middle East), 3 D's (China tariffs; Canada; Mexico), 2 F's (Greenland bluster; Ukraine). "Overall barely a passing grade."