A real-money investing newsletter

Real money. Six stocks. Measured against the S&P 500.

In 2025 the portfolio returned +26.61% against the S&P 500's +16.39%. Every quarter is published — the winning ones and the losing ones — because the only score that matters is portfolio minus index.

Subscribe — $8/mo See the full track record

Track record

The scorecard, wins and losses.

Every year since 2023 — the first year of published returns — wins and losses both shown. A track record that hides its down years isn't a track record. 2026 year-to-date updates live during market hours.

+118.15%2023 · first published year
vs S&P 500 +24.2% · beat S&P by +94.0pp

+18.4%2024 portfolio return
vs S&P 500 +24.2%

+26.61%2025 portfolio return
vs S&P 500 +16.39%

—2026 year-to-date · portfolio LIVE
vs S&P 500 —

Q3 2026 — portfolio vs S&P 500 LIVE

—Portfolio

—S&P 500

—vs S&P 500

Live estimate during market hours (Mon–Fri 6:30 AM–1:00 PM MST) · · estimated portfolio value —

Full history, quarterly detail, and prediction grades →

How it works

Four pillars, one portfolio.

Technology, geopolitics, and stock picking — acted on with real dollars, not just opinions.

Concentrated conviction

About six stocks. "Safe" compounders paired with volatile high-upside names — and the first-to-sell candidates named up front, not after the fact.

Distribution & data win

In AI, moated distribution beats foundation models. The real progress shows up in biotech and in platforms that already reach billions.

III

Geopolitics first

Five years living in China taught that tariffs, trade truces, and supply chains move sectors before earnings do. Macro is a lens, not a prediction.

Radical transparency

Quarterly performance with dollar tables and cost bases. Predictions graded A–F. Mistakes published — including the ones that still hurt.

Read the full framework →

Position history

Every stock this portfolio has held.

Reconstructed from the newsletter's trade alerts, back to the 2019 founding buy. Gold bars are held today; gray bars are closed — including the ones that ran after being sold.

Held today Closed position Bars starting at the left edge = entry date never published

Reconstructed from all 34 Substack posts (Oct 2023–Jul 2026) plus the founding buys disclosed at inception. Total return: open positions show the unrealized gain against cost basis at the latest quote; closed positions show the realized return from published prices. Hover any row for the full story.

Theses, cost bases, and the full trade log →

From the newsletter